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LottoPoster Forums : NUMBER SETS TO PLAY FROM DIFFERENT METHODS : Covers or Wheels with Guarantees and Unique 3's 
Topic: The BIG IF'S of Lotto Covers or Guarantee Wheels  
Author  Message  
Colin F
Lotto Systems Tester Creator & Analyst To dream the impossible dream ... Joined: September 30 2004 Location: Australia Online Status: Offline Posts: 678 
Topic: The BIG IF'S of Lotto Covers or Guarantee Wheels Posted: November 19 2007 at 6:22pm 

The preposterous BIG IF'S of Lotto Covers or Guarantee Wheels
From the very time that I became aware of Covers or Wheels with guarantees I asked myself is this really for real for the simple reason that those that espoused these absurdities referred to the condition to meet to get the guarantee in a way as if it was some trifle easily overcome! Nothing could be further from the truth as is apparent when referring to the table below! There are no Jackpot Lotteries for pretty much a Pool less than 25. Getting 3 right in say a Pool of 20 is way different to getting 3 right from the full Pool of numbers used in the Lotto game whether it be 25, 45 or 49.
For a Cover or Wheel with Guarantee that uses the full Pool of integers for that Lotto game as in C(49,6,3,6,1)=163 there is no IF  you are going to get a win every draw and damn the exorbitant cost for a pittance return! The syntax for this expression is  Cover(Max Integer, Pick, Prize Guarantee, Hits, Wins Guarantee)=Lowest Number of Combs. However, where the Pool is less than the maximum applicable to the game in this case 49  then some pretty big IFs come into play.
Realize that the more constrictive the pool is the harder it is to get all the integers in that pool. For a 6/49 Lotto game where 6 integers are drawn the hardest is to get them in a Pool of 6 which is first prize followed by 7, 8 etc. This is why you need more combinations to get the guarantee as you increase the Pool size.
What's the point? Well, just like those lottery advertisements that say all you have to do to win is pick 6 numbers from say, 49 and then jump up and down for joy when the draw comes round so in Covers the big IF is often glossed over as if it is naturally going to happen. The reality is that those big IFs follow the odds and just don't happen that often.
Refer to the table below to get a reality check on just where the lower Pool sizes figure with the actual Lotto games' maximum Pool size. In particular note that in a 6/49 game the combinations from Pool 44 are about 50% of the maximum so if you are dealing with say Pool 22 this represents about ½ of 1% NOT 45%. Easy on the caffeine and give up the sugar!
In the table below pc6 (read as p choose 6) means all the combinations of 6 integers from the pool p. So, if p is 7 it is 7 combinations, if it is 8 then 28 combinations etc.
Regards
Colin Fairbrother 

Lotto Draws have no relationship to one another; the integers serve just as identifiers. Any prediction calculation on one history of draws for a same type game is just as irrelevant as another.


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