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Covers or Wheels with Guarantees and Unique 3's
 LottoPoster Forums : NUMBER SETS TO PLAY FROM DIFFERENT METHODS : Covers or Wheels with Guarantees and Unique 3's
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Colin F
Lotto Systems Tester Creator & Analyst
Lotto Systems Tester Creator & Analyst
To dream the impossible dream ...

Joined: September 30 2004
Location: Australia
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Quote Colin F Replybullet Topic: Is there a real use for Covers / Guarantee Wheels?
    Posted: April 14 2007 at 12:28pm
Is there a real use for Covers or Guarantee Wheels?
by Colin Fairbrother
I have always been perplexed since coming across the term covers where it meant something other than what you slept under, as to what their real use is? As I see it the essence of a Cover is to absolutely guarantee a particular outcome from an event at the lowest expenditure. A search on the web throws up the term "Coverism" as being a method of prayer; I assume they cover themselves when praying. This is something akin to the proverbial ostrich burying its head in the sand when danger threatens and my overall assessment of Covers in relation to Lotto is that they are quite simply a con trick and ignore the reality of percentage return. In other words there is no need for a guarantee of say the minimum prize every time you play Lotto if the cost is some three times higher than what is delivered in due course by the odds. 
I know Covers come from set theory in mathematics where they have respectability but what is their real use other than hoodwinking and bamboozling Lotto "aficionados" and providing a manna for swindlers, con-artists and just plain ignoramuses? Is it something to do with packing or networking or nodes, whatever?
The plain and simple fact is that if you are lusting after a three prize win in say a 6/49 Lotto which pays about $2.00 and where the ticket cost is say 50¢ then anything you fork out above $2.00 is a losing proposition unless you get a higher odds prize! (This is a good rule of thumb for other than syndicates - to not spend on any draw more than the payout for the lowest prize!) After all Covers don't pay in accordance with the odds - for the most achievable they are only giving about one third of the odds - the rest is all up to randomness!
Let's take the "famous" 163 lines for a 6/49 Lotto which guaranties 1 lousy three hit if you play it ie a $2 win even though it has cost you about $81.50. Now, let's do 10 runs of 40 draws with 4 random selection plays per draw ie 160 plays per run - so we're giving away 3 plays per run or 30 plays overall for the 10 runs. Here are the results warts and all ie no tinkering or discarding -
    Run        Three Win       Four Win
     1             4              -
     2             2              -
     3             2              -
     4             -              -
     5             5              -
     6             4              -
     7             5              -
     8             3              -
     9             3              1
    10             1              -   
                  Totals   29                       1    
Looking at these results we see that only once out of 10 did we fare less than the 163 Line Cover by an insignificant 50¢. For 8 of the 10 runs we were ahead - fivefold twice, fourfold twice, threefold once, twofold twice and for one run we blitzed the Cover by the equivalent of twenty three fold by getting a four! For the total 1,630 plays we got 29 three wins whereas the Cover only guaranties 10!. The average for each run is 2.9 Three Wins which is in accordance with probability calculations as is the single Four win.
When I first  came across Covers or Wheels with guaranties as applied to Lotto in 2002 - I thought what kind of absurd con trick is this - to this very day all I have found is more and more substantiation of that initial assessment. 
Jackpot or Powerball Lotto is about winning the top or higher tier prizes not the token or consolation ones. Let me spell it out again - if some gullible person is playing 163 lines at 50¢ per line costing $81.50 in a 6/49 Lotto game as in a C(49,6,3,6) with a guarantee of a three win ie $2 and you are playing the minimum number of plays required to participate, say - 4 plays or $2.00, then for each game you are ahead by $77.50 if you lose! Sounds to me more like winning! Now, as far as the first prize is concerned when the odds are 13,983,816 to 1 playing 4 lines or 163 is an insignificant difference. ie 0.00002% compared to 0.00116% 
If you want the best return for your money without the windfall millions then play blackjack where the return is typically 99.5%. For Jackpot Lotto games the only return you will typically see is around the 15 to 20% mark ie you lose 80% or more of what you put into it. Pick 3 and Pick 4 at State payouts don't even return the same percentage as poker or slot machines.
I await with eagerness for some bright soul to elucidate me on my source of bewilderment.
Colin Fairbrother
Lotto Draws have no relationship to one another; the integers serve just as identifiers. Any prediction calculation on one history of draws for a same type game is just as irrelevant as another.
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