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Playing Lotto Pick 3 at State 500:1 or Online 900:1 Payouts
 LottoPoster Forums : LOTTO THEORY, CONCEPTS AND METHODS OF PLAY : Playing Lotto Pick 3 at State 500:1 or Online 900:1 Payouts
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Colin F
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Quote Colin F Replybullet Topic: Playing All 120 Base Unmatched Trial Run
    Posted: July 04 2006 at 7:44am

Playing all the 120 Unmatched or 6-Way base numbers (each base number can present in 6 ways) at 5 Dimes will cost you $30.00 at 25c per play. If it comes in you net $7.50. You can chase it for one more draw to break even at $1 per play ie you outlay $120 and if you win get $150 to pay for the $30 you lost on the previous draw plus the $120 on the current one. Alternatively, you can bet $2.00 per play at 5 Dimes (not an option on the other site) costing $240.00 which will put you $30 in front after deducting $270.00. After that you just take the loss on the chin unless you want to fork out $1,200 to put you $30 in front.

You can learn a lot about Pick 3 by following what happens when you play the 120 Base Unmatched. Of course, if you play at State Payouts you can only lose as the cost of play exceeds the payout of only 500 to 1. This ia a very good reason why as a serious Pick 3 player you should play on-line and when you compare the two choices 5 Dimes has more options including being able to wager at up to $25 per play - the other place limits you to $1.00 per play and don't try to phone them up to complain. 

Firstly, let's get some jargon out of the way. Probability, quite simply, is the ratio of the favorable chances to all the outcomes. So, to win a straight in Pick 3 it is 1 in 1,000 or 1/1000 or 1:1000. Probability is more strictly expressed as something between 0, which is impossible and 1, which is certain. So 0.5 is the same as a 50/50 or 50% chance.

Now, while we tend to use the word "odds" interchangeably with probability the strict definition is the ratio of Losing Outcomes (Chances) to the winning outcomes. So, the odds for winning a Pick 3 Straight are 999/1. You should understand that if odds are expressed using the divisor operator then it is not meant to be interpreted that way. In other words the notation does not infer division. You can convert from Odds to Probability and vice versa -

Odds Against = (1/Probability) - 1.

Probability 1/4 or .25 gives odds of (1/0.25) - 1 = 4 - 1 = 3 ie 3 chances of losing versus 1 chance of winning.

Odds 4/1 or 4:1. There are 5 chances so probability is 1/5 = .2 or 20% if you like.

While we are explaining a thing or two let's get another common misconception out of the way. Lets say you buy 4 straight tickets in a Pick 3 game. The 1,000 possibilities can be divided into 4 sets of 250 numbers. The winning ticket will be in only one of the sets. So, allocating 1 ticket to each set interchangeably we see that our chances of winning are 1 in 250. Similarly, if the winning ticket in a Jackpot Lotto game is 1 in 10 million, then if you buy 10 tickets you are able to allocate interchangeably 1 ticket to each million set - so your chances of winning are 1 in a million.

Getting back to playing 120 Base Unmatched. The chances of an Unmatched coming up in the draw are 720 in 1,000. If you play around with this ratio you can reduce it to very close to 13 in 18. The odds are 13 to 5 on or roughly 5 to 2 on. We use the expression "on" where your chances of winning are higher than your chances of losing.

So, in every 18 draws we hopefully should get 13 wins. Calculating at 25c per play this can be summarized like so -


Cost 18 Draws: 18 x $30.00 = $540.00
13 Wins: 13 x $37.50 = $487.50
Return %: 487.50/540.00 = 90% 

But that is not necessarily the case. We may get 18 wins over 18 draws which would give us a Percentage Return of 675/540 = 125%. Or we may only get 10 wins out of the 18 draws to give us a Percentage Return of 375/540 = 70% approx.

The first thing you may have noticed is that digit analysis does not come into the picture and the question you should ask yourself is should it ever be a consideration. The second thing is - does it make a difference if I only play a State where there has been at least 4 Doubles in a row?

Well, we shall find out in due course as we start with Louisiana which has had 4 Doubles consecutively. So our $30 is on Louisiana if playing at 25c per play or $120 if playing at $1 per play - playing all the 120 Base Unmatched starting 4th of July, 2006.

Regards
Colin

ps If you want to play for real highlight the numbers below then press ctrl C together to copy; locate your cursor in the text box at 5 Dimes then press ctrl V together to paste.

012, 013, 014, 015, 016, 017, 018, 019, 023, 024, 025, 026, 027, 028, 029, 034, 035, 036, 037, 038, 039, 045, 046, 047, 048, 049, 056, 057, 058, 059, 067, 068, 069, 078, 079, 089, 123, 124, 125, 126, 127, 128, 129, 134, 135, 136, 137, 138, 139, 145, 146, 147, 148, 149, 156, 157, 158, 159, 167, 168, 169, 178, 179, 189, 234, 235, 236, 237, 238, 239, 245, 246, 247, 248, 249, 256, 257, 258, 259, 267, 268, 269, 278, 279, 289, 345, 346, 347, 348, 349, 356, 357, 358, 359, 367, 368, 369, 378, 379, 389, 456, 457, 458, 459, 467, 468, 469, 478, 479, 489, 567, 568, 569, 578, 579, 589, 678, 679, 689, 789

Lotto Draws have no relationship to one another; the integers serve just as identifiers. Any prediction calculation on one history of draws for a same type game is just as irrelevant as another.
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Colin F
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Quote Colin F Replybullet Posted: July 05 2006 at 4:46am

Good result first day. After 400, 288, 999 and 993 in Louisiana an Unmatched 980 came in. Rather than do the trial at 25c per play I will do it at $1.00. Just remember on any betting day if a double or triple comes in on the State Game you are playing then you've done your dough.

  Stake: $360.00
   Bet: $120.00
Win: $150.00
Net: $30.00
Balance: $390.00

Now, we need to wait for the next one with 4 doubles or triples consecutively.

Regards
Colin

ps July 5th, 2006
It's one thing to yabber on about something and another thing to put your money where your mouth is. Now, I had said to myself a few times I must bet the 120 Base Unmatched one day just to say I've done it. After all, think about it, what other bet can you say to yourself you have a 70% chance of success! Well, with a balance of $245 from a $50 stake after carefully crafted bets I did the big flutter today at $1 per play - and I take this as positive proof that the Lord is smiling on my missionary work in converting all you numerology and occultist sinners from the error of your ways - because he gave me a win of $150 putting me $30 in front. Thank you Lord - I shall apply it to a good cause - my daughter's education. Should buy an exercise book, at least.

Colin welcome to the "Base 120 Club". Anybody else care to join me? Here's where you go 5 Dimes.

Lotto Draws have no relationship to one another; the integers serve just as identifiers. Any prediction calculation on one history of draws for a same type game is just as irrelevant as another.
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Colin F
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Quote Colin F Replybullet Posted: July 12 2006 at 5:43am

For Wednesday July 12th, 2006 Connecticut has 4 doubles consecutively, so, we'll give it a go with all 120 base unmatched at 1.00 per play.

**************************************************

Missed out this time with 001 coming up in Connecticut to give 5 Doubles consecutively.

  Stake:  $360.00
    Bet: $120.00
Cum Bets: $240.00
    Win: $ 0.00
Cum Win: $150.00
   Net: -$ 90.00
Balance: $270.00

Regards
Colin

ps Came in the next day as 587. It's up to you whether you chase for 1 or 2 draws. Although this is a trial I am treating the money as real - for $120 I don't chase - just wait for the next day. Chasers eventually get run over!

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Colin F
Lotto Systems Tester Creator & Analyst
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To dream the impossible dream ...

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Posts: 678
Quote Colin F Replybullet Posted: July 18 2006 at 7:46pm

Looking at the 5 Draw Stats for the 54 State Games where the 4 Draws before the last have been Doubles I see there are 838 that qualify. Of these 210 or 25.05% have resulted in another Double and 628 or 74.94% in the desired Unmatched. While this is some 3% above the odds it is not enough to be profitable at a 93.67% return.

Here is a quick summary from the detailed Stats I have calculated: -

  State Games with qualifying Signatures: 48
Highest Percentage Return: 119.57%
Lowest Percentage Return: 53.57%
Average Percentage Return: 93.67%
               Greater than 100% Return: 19
                            Around 98%: 2
                            Around 94%: 5
                       Around 90 - 91%: 3
                       Around 85 - 88%: 7
                            Around 83%: 4
                            Around 80%: 4
                       Around 67 - 71%: 3
Lowest 54%: 1

So, of the two - that is playing all Doubles after 10 Unmatched consecutively or all Unmatched after 4 Doubles there is not much between them both giving overall about a 94% return but the doubles requiring less outlay at $22.50 than the Unmatched at $30. Some of you may note that this is not based on surmising or conjecture but on calculated facts!

Overall the odds dominate but playing a large block of numbers such as all the Unmatched it is possible to make a profit if: -

  • you pick a State Pick 3 Game that is over recent draw days showing a profit and you hop on that gravy train on the basis that it will continue to do that and hop off when it doesn't.
  • you need to pick and choose from a large pool of State Pick 3 Games and that is only feasably possible by playing online at for example 5 Dimes.
  • you need payouts of 150 to 1 for a boxed Unmatched play and that too is only possible by playing online at the best venue, 5 Dimes.

Regards
Colin  

Lotto Draws have no relationship to one another; the integers serve just as identifiers. Any prediction calculation on one history of draws for a same type game is just as irrelevant as another.
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